U.S. Soccer and the World Cup (Part I: Expectations and Advancing from the Group)

I intend this to be a series about the U.S. and the World Cup examining, the various expectations of the U.S. performance, the impact on the sport in the U.S. and the impact on perceptions of U.S. soccer globally. That is, if time and the omni-benevolent owner of this blog allow.

In the U.S. both fans and the U.S. soccer establishment place a very high value on the World Cup and have similarly high expectations both for their team and what it will mean for the sport here should the U.S. meet those expectations. I say, “Don’t hold your breath.”

U.S. can expect to do well, but not really to advance past the first or second elimination stage. Frankly, if they are not going to match expectations, I expect them to fall short rather than exceed them. I could use the Confederations’ Cup final as a metaphor for my predictions of the U.S.'s performance, but I’d rather draw parallels between the Confederations’ Cup group stage and the previous World Cup group stage. The previous World Cup was a fiasco – massively over-hyped with an equally massive under-performance. Except, I hasten to point out that, the U.S. drew Italy. That is a feat only, at best, mirrored by France in the final. It wasn’t pretty, but the U.S. pulled it off and that cannot be taken away. Then they went on to lose to Ghana, whom they should have beaten. And lost badly to the Czech Republic previously, but that was "expected." "Expectations" aside, the Czech performance in their subsequent games suggests that they were a beatable team and the U.S. really should have done better, drawing or beating them, if the U.S. was ever going to be competitive.

So about the Confederations’ Cup: after beating Spain and forcing Brazil to comeback, we may have forgotten that the U.S. needed Brazilian and Egyptian help to even make it out of the group stages. The U.S. lost to Italy (Screw you, Guiseppe Rossi) and Brazil. Only by pounding Egypt (which they did) and hoping that Brazil pounded Italy (which they did) and, oh yeah, Egypt had to beat Italy (which they did, what the hell was that, Azzurri?) did the U.S. stand a chance of making out it out of the group. And then the U.S. did very well.

However, the group stages were hardly a resounding performance in either instance. The big difference between them was that the U.S. stepped up and beat Egypt in the Confederations' Cup when it was necessary, whereas they lost a must-win game to Ghana in the World Cup. The U.S. should make it out of their group, that bit of improvement makes me confident that they are capable of and should advance from the group stages. They are capable of beating any mid-level team decisively when it is necessary. They should be competitive with their opponents in the elimination stage, but lose in the first or second game, depending on their opponents. The U.S. are capable of beating any established football power when the U.S. is having a really good day, unless that football power is feeling its roots, and then it will get ugly. That is not new. The U.S., for various reasons, has been able to compete at a very high level from time-to-time. Now, they're slightly more consistent. However, the U.S. could just get flustered and collapse, like it did against the Czechs in the World Cup and the Italians in the Confederations’ Cup. Nothing about that has changed either. Given the U.S.'s track record, it’s almost as likely that they will fold against a UEFA or CONMEBOL power and get blown away in their first elimination game. The U.S. could fall badly to England and not recover enough to hold onto the second spot in the group, but that seems less a possibility than in years past. Of course, the U.S. could beat England then be absolutely destroyed by Slovenia and Algeria, because this is soccer and stranger things have happened. But that would be weird and I can't be held responsible for such craziness.

So maybe this is downer, no, I doubt the U.S. will win the World Cup or even make a particularly strong showing in the elimination stages. But look on the bright side! Now, as U.S. fans, we don’t have to be pleased just to have made the tournament. Now, we get to be like the Brits and make up excuses as to why we still have awkward losses to teams we can beat and “underperform” in every tournament. That’ll be my excuse if the U.S. gets thrashed by the Brits. “We get flustered when we face big teams in the first game. It’s a confidence, not skill, issue.” If you want to use my excuse as well, feel free; it’s a good narrative and I’m here to help.