Fourth Place

This looks like a special season in the Barclay's Premier League. Only 16 teams have made it into the top four since the formation of the Premier League in 1992, who weren't Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United or Chelsea. And by looking at the tables from all these years, most of the 16 were early on around the time Blackburn won the league in 1995. Each of the last several seasons, the question is asked all season long, who can break the monopoly of the traditional "Big Four?" This year looks likely to be the breakthrough finally after spurs and Everton came in fifth several times and Aston Villa nearly held on last year. First, I'd like to make the point that I think only two of the "Big Four" are capable of falling out for an extended period. Those two are Liverpool and Manchester United. If you've been watching the league this year, you understand the Liverpool situation. Manchester United are in a very similar situation but they are winning right now. Financially, they are in a great deal of risk with a bond issue about to happen which will run their debt up to 1.1 billion pounds and a group of owners who are taking money out of the club. This is very dangerous ground to live on in the current financial climate let alone a booming one. If things don't go well, They run the risk of losing their last few valuable assets which could end their run of league titles, let alone their run of champions league runs.

What I want to discuss here is the so called "wannabe" teams. The three primary contenders for the fourth spot this season are Aston Villa, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur. All three of these teams sit ahead of Liverpool, and with Liverpool's injury woes and lack of money available to strengthen the squad which they desperately need to do. But who actually has the ability to supplant Liverpool this year?

Manchester City have been the clear favorite this season. They have the money and the players now to make a good run. The team is good, but there are some glaring problems. I think the most obvious is Robinho. He obviously doesn't want to be there, and seems to have lost all of his ability. He is now a bench warmer and better yet, was substituted as a substitute today. He is dreadful and needs to be shed as soon as is possible. The other big problem is chemistry. With the squad available, it has seemed like they have not figured out a best 11 and have not been able to build team chemistry. I also think there is a air of arrogance because of the money the players are making. If the team can gather some chemistry and play seriously with the heart that Tevez shows, I think they can stay up in the realm of the top four, possibly for the foreseeable future.

Aston Villa are my head's pick to make it. The team has so much talent available to Martin O'Neil, they should have managed the feat last season. I think the failure to do so is the best lesson to help them make it over the line this year. The big problem I see for the Villains is their lack of Depth. I think they have one of the better starting 11's in the league, but beyond that they are weak. There's also the problem of Emile Heskey. He is not right for Villa, and I'd argue he isn't right for England. I think Villa will cross the line but I think it will be a narrow margin.

Finally are my beloved Spurs. I genuinely believe we will implode yet again this season. Tottenham have one of the best squads in the league with good depth, a good manager who seems able to deal with the egos at the club, and a fan base ready to fill the upcoming new 55,000 seat stadium that the club are building. On Paper, Tottenham should be winning titles. But when you see the bipolar nature of the team, it makes you wonder how they managed to be in 1st place in the league for the first month and a half this season. There are three major problems with the team right now. Robbie Keane, Ledley King and the lack of a Midfield presence. Robbie Keane is a shadow of the player that left for Liverpool 18 moths ago. He has not bedded back into the squad, he has played poorly, has not played the way he is needed to play. He has become a distraction as Captain as Redknapp has found it difficult to drop him. Ledley King has been a distraction who we have needed because we haven't been strong at the back. We are building our future centerback pairing and he needs to resign himself to the bench to cover for injuries. The problem with the midfield is slowly being solved. Both Luka Modric and Aaron Lennon are taking control of games and showing massive leadership qualities and hopefully will be the basis of that midfield for years to come. I think Realistically Tottenham are least likely to make it into the top four this year. The thing is, they are going to become stronger and stronger contenders for years to come.

So Who pulls it off this year? We'll see in May.