2011 Pre-Season Worries

What Me Worry?

DC's season is about to begin and, like last year, I thought I would make a list of things that are losing me sleep at night and giving me ulcers.

• A bunch of young players who have never played together play like a bunch of young players who have never played together.
• Charlie Davies isn't fully recovered and won't fully recover.
• This might be United's last season in DC.
• Players like Morsink, Ngwenya, and Brettschneider who have been on-form in pre-season lose that form.
• Bumblebees.
• The "competition at every position" unsettles some players.
• Bill Hamid is athletically gifted, but unable to make himself into a keeper.
• Coach Olsen equates "heart" with "talent" because he had both, but not all his players do.
• I run out of money and miss a lot of games this season.
• Losing at the beginning of the season becomes a habit again.
• Pontius' form last year was a reflection of his abilities and not his injuries.
• I can't find a way out of my dead-end job.
• Injuries, particularly in defense.
• Najar stagnates or succumbs to the pressure and regresses.
• Unknown unknowns.
• Key rookies can't hack it in the big leagues.
• The new general admission policy in the Nest turns it into Barra-lite.
• Speaking at my brother's wedding.
• Losing players for the Gold Cup.
• Simms and Morsink just aren't good enough anymore for MLS.
• Where did this red spot come from? Is it cancerous?

That's all I've got for now. I haven't looked back to see how valid my concerns were last year. I know some were way off (Wallace and Pontius being too good to stay in MLS) and some were unfortunately prescient (Moreno good enough to play, but not good enough to be useful). We'll see how it goes this year.

The Season Begins

We Win Pre-Season

DC won the Carolina Cup Challenge! We dominate pre-season!

That's not entirely fair; DC wins lots of games that don't matter, not just pre-season. Before any observers get too excited about United's undefeated pre-season, they should realize that DC was undefeated in pre-season last year and DC's competition this year were colleges and some of the worst teams in MLS last year (Chivas USA, Chicago, and Toronto). It's great for team morale to get those W's, but that's not what is really important. Nevertheless, I think DC did have a fair successful pre-season.

Goals

Last year, during the pre-season, all of DC's goals came from Jaime Moreno. Alright, maybe not all. But he was the only one to score in the Carolina Cup Challenge and that turned out to be a harbinger for the season - no one scored. This year, Ngwenya, Pontius, Davies, Brettschneider, and others have put the ball into the net. This is a very good thing. Also, Brettschneider looked quite competent during the pre-season and that looks good for DC's long term plans.

Defenders

DC looks to have a lot of good options in defense. The sole weak spot appears to be left back where the choices are Marc Burch or Woolard. Kitchen has looked quite good. I haven't seen much of Brasesco, but those who have have been quite pleased. Jakovic looks to have tossed off much of last season's lethargy. Jayner doesn't look too bad, although I think he is spending too much time on the ball. Ethan White and Chris Korb have also looked very decent as cover at the very least. Although, DC's defensive frailties last year were not particularly apparent in last year's pre-season, they rapidly became so during the season.

Starters

Coach Olsen has instituted competition for every spot on the field. Which is great in theory, but I also think that he has been fortunate to have the talent to do so. The strikers that DC acquired in the off-season have all shown fairly well, quite well in the case of Brettschneider. DC is loaded in the midfield, particularly on the wings with Najar, Quaranta, Pontius, Boskovic, Junior, and Fred all competing for playing time. That said, Dax McCarty seems to have a lock on the central "midfield engine" spot. Although Boskovic played in the position last season, Olsen has stated that he intends to play Boskovic on the outside. King is a central midfielder, but doesn't really appear to hold a candle to McCarty. Fred has also played in the creative central midfield role and may give McCarty some competition, although how much remains to be seen. The central midfield spot does appear to be up for grabs with Morsink playing well and challenging the ever-reliable Simms for the position.

What to Expect When You're Expecting

This line-up looks much stronger than last year, but what to expect from this season remains to be seen. It also raises the question of what to expect from the season opener against Columbus. I'm not certain - DC is a completely redone team. It is also a very young team. I believe it completely plausible that the first half of the season will be extremely rough for United and that they will drop points that they probably should not while the team learns to play with one another and gel and while some of the rookies and younger players gain confidence and experience. Columbus is not the team that they have been in years past. A number of the reliable players as well as their playermaker, Schelotto, have left in the off-season. In fact, they looked relatively weak against Real Salt Lake in the CONCACAF Champions' League games earlier in this pre-season. Under other circumstances, I would say that if DC is going to have a successful season, three points against Columbus at home should be expected. However, I have to allow some slack for all the new faces. Instead, if the first game is to be a harbinger of the season (and there are plenty of reasons for it not to be), I think the focus has to be on the creativity and the extent to which the players are on the same page. The extent to which DC appears to play coherently as a team may indicate whether DC fans will have to grind their teeth through July and hope for a strong finish and the following year or whether DC will be competitive for the whole season and really bounce back from last year's disastrous season.

CD9

Honestly, I'm Not Trying to Be A Downer

Please don't misunderstand. The Charlie Davies signing is exciting. Where previously I had reconciled myself to not seeing a number of the D.C. United games, I am now trying to figure out how to wrangle the funds together to see them all. That said, Charlie Davies is not the answer.

What is "Leg?"

If "Charlie Davies is not the answer," then I should probably define the question. The problem is that D.C. United is rebuilding. The D.C. attack has suffered for the past three years as Jaime aged, Gomez left and aged, and Emilio. . . I don't know, discovered a love of hot dogs? Although D.C. is a young team, it has no returning strikers from last season. They have no homegrown or young strikers that are on-going projects that will yield returns in seasons to come. In every other position, D.C. has young and promising players and/or "project players" learning the in background, but D.C.'s projected starting strikers are has-beens, never-weres, and Charlie Davies (a might-be). McCarty and Najar are promising goal threats, but they both have historically played out of the midfield. A potent midfield offense is probably essential, but also insufficient.

Davies Could Be Big, Big, Big, Big Bugs

Yes, that's a They Might Be Giants reference up there; you can judge me, it's fine. Davies might be the real deal; he could be a giant in this league. The problem, as I see it, is if he is good, he's not going to want to stick around - he's had his foot into the European game and will want to return. If European teams don't want Davies, it will probably because he has not recovered from his injuries and is not the player that he was. It is possible that there may be a happy medium in which he is a decent-enough MLS striker, but isn't good enough for a European club. More likely, he will either be too good to stay or not good enough to do the same. So, the team should probably assume that he is not going to be around for the 2012 season and D.C. is back to be looking for a reliable scoring option at forward again.

Stanky Icing

I am not saying that D.C. should not have signed Davies. Not signing him would have been a mistake. But D.C. needs options behind him to rise through the ranks and try to fill his shoes in the next season. D.C. needs a striker to learn from Davies and to learn the trade while Davies shoulders the majority of the goal-scoring burden. Davies himself would be perfect if D.C. were still looking to advance in the CCL. Because he is most likely a one-year deal, Davies is a perk, a crowd pleaser, icing on D.C.'s rebuilt cake.

New Faces?

It may be that United will pick up another striker to fill the role I have described, but I see that as increasingly unlikely. Fear not, however, as there are pre-existing options. Rookie draft pick Blake Brettschneider is getting a look from Olsen and the staff. He scored a couple of times in the most recent pre-season game, but predicting future performance from pre-season games is something akin to Santeria. Nevertheless, he is a potential option. Also, D.C. has two young and promising players in Pontius and Najar who have, at times, played as forwards. While both have spent considerable time playing on the wings, D.C. has a relative surplus of talent on the wings and just signed another winger in Fred. To me, this indicates that one, if not both, of them will be considered a striker and spend most of their time on the pitch as a forward. If I am correct, then I my guess is that it will be at least Pontius. Whether a new signing or a young existing player, Wolff, Ngwenya, and Davies should not be accepted by the Black-and-Red faithful as D.C.'s primary strikers this year or D.C. is going to be back to square-one when it comes to scoring in 2012.

*An Aside - I am watching this Olimpique Marseille - Manchester United Champions' League game and I have to say - OM's third/Champions' League kits last year were absolutely bad ass. I know that the teams want their supporters to buy new merchandise every year (see: D.C. United's third jersey), but they really should have kept last year's jersey.

A Letter to Brendan: It's Good to Be Donkey-Punched

I'm Probably a Cutter

I said that I probably wouldn't write about DC United again, but last night's loss to LA was a kick to the genitals. The loss to the Crew in the U.S. Open Cup was a kick to the genitals. When they lost again to the Crew a couple days later, it was a kick to the ol' rod-and-tackle. It's good to feel again.

Actually, I'm completely serious. Last night, Brendan sent me a text saying that he was "foolish" enough to believe that DC might actually pull off a win when leading 1-0 in the 80th minute. I respond that I was similarly foolish and we have been watching our team concede goals late all season. Actually, Brendan, that was the emotion talking. You were right to believe. Six weeks ago, you never would have fallen for it because there was no reason to believe it. This time, the team gave us a reason.

Why Brendan Was Right to Believe

What happened last night? Losing last night's game can be chalked up to bad chemistry between Jakovic and Simms. Simms is playing through an injury and has spent large chunks of the season on the bench - that his chemistry might be off is disappointing, but understandable.

Graye then proceeded to completely lose Landon Donovan, who made an excellent run and executed a perfect header that left Perkins with no chance. Wow, a rookie-defender lost the best player in the league who made us pay for it? Shocking.

But the game should have been out of reach for LA, Boskovic and Hernandez both squandered chances. That happens, it's not something to be proud of, but plenty of teams fail to maximize chances (see: Arsenal - Sunderland).

Go back seven weeks or longer. You can't point to "what went wrong" because the team played so poorly, it seemed more a result of inevitability than individual errors.

A lot went right last night. You didn't see the first half, did you? 0-0, but DC United absolutely out-classed LA. That's not to say that LA didn't have chances, but United's attack picked it's way through the LA defense with a lot of creative short passing triangles, good ball-skills, believe it or not, retention of possession, speed (from the wings), and a lot of imagination. Brendan, I'm telling you, there were parts that were positively sexy. LA's chances came from long balls over the top, hoping that Buddle would leave James or Jakovic in the dust, which he could not do. For 75 minutes of that game, DC were the better side and not by a small margin.

That's How We Should Be Losing

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year and we have waited 2/3rds of the season to see signs of life. We have the youngest squad in the league, as we should. Graye isn't in the running for rookie of the year, neither were King or Zayner in their rookie years. However, all of them look like they will be very solid MLS players. Najar is a phenomenon. Jakovic is already, last night's single play not withstanding, one of the best central defenders in the league. Julius James has found his legs, he marked Buddle out of the match last night and has taken good players out of the game all season. Hernandez is improving by leaps and bounds as he adjusts to the league. He needs to work on his strength and balance, but his skill is starting to shine through, he carved out a lot of space last night and he is starting to beat defenders. Tino's entire game has improved, save his shooting. Did you see him dribble through two defenders last night? I expected him to put his head down and try to beat the last one and shoot over the bar. Instead, he looked up and laid the ball off to Hernandez. Boskovic is improving, but the jury is still out on whether he's worth the DP money.

Regardless, that is a pretty good base on which to build and that leaves Pontius and Wallace who are out injured. Even Burch looked pretty good in his couple of games this season. I'm not saying that we're going to run the table next year, but playoffs? Very possible. The year after, if the young guys continue their development, DC will have a very good team. There are still spots that need to be filled, chiefly goal scorer. Still, it's a very good foundation that are finally starting to mesh.

If we had played like this all season, we'd probably have a couple more wins and a lot more ties.

There's Always Next Year

What Do You Mean There Are Two Months Left?

Well, this season has been somewhere between a disaster and a fiasco and there are still a couple months left. Before the season began, I wrote a post about what I feared might go wrong. Judging by that list, I clearly had no idea how bad D.C. was going to be.

A Disaster and a Fiasco

I honestly did not see D.C. competing for any trophies this year. However, while some D.C. United fans felt that D.C. had downgraded at every position, I did not, and still do not (precisely), agree with that premise. Losing Gomez as central playmaker, even with his reduced skills, was problematic since D.C. did not have an obvious replacement. Also losing Emilio without an obvious replacement meant trouble, but I had railed against Emilio in the previous seasons and thought a change in formation and a new striker would more than make up for his loss. I worried also that Moreno would no longer be productive, but would be skilled enough to earn a first team spot and that certainly happened. While those were among my concerns and they proved accurate, they were just the tip of the iceberg and we were the Titanic. Below is a list of what I did not see coming.

I Call It a "Diasco"

• Bryan Namoff never recovered and was forced to retire.
• Santino Quaranta's form did not recover from the end of last year and may have even dipped further.
• Dejan Jakovic spent considerable time on the bench injured.
• Rodney Wallace had a season ending injury early in the year.
• I split my knuckles thrice on a tree outside of RFK.
• Chris Pontius has been playing injured all season and is out for the rest of it.
• Pontius and Wallace both suffered sophomore slumps when they did play.
• Troy Perkins went from a national team consideration to a national joke staple.
• Ronnie Raccoon took up residence in RFK, furthering its dilapidation.
• The D.C. offense replaced the striker Luciano Emilio as target man with 16/17-year old rookie-winger Andy Najar, with predictable results.
• The D.C. offense has been shutout as many times as any team in MLS history and there are still two months to go.
• D.C. has to struggle not to have the worst league record in MLS history (they're not clear of that dubious honor yet and don't look on pace to do so).
• D.C. United has generally refused to win on either the Christian or Jewish Sabbath.
• Danny Allsopp and Adam Christman are the same striker and neither scores.
• The team has moved closer than ever to a move to Baltimore.
• The symmetry of Pompey wearing D.C. United jerseys during the friendly is not lost on me.

Who Am I Kidding?

Yes, D.C.'s season is "over." I will still continue to go to all the games and I will be sad to see the season end, if only because I enjoy live soccer. These are also the last few games for D.C. and MLS legend Jaime Moreno. My desire to see him hang up his boots should not be taken for disrespect. His number is on my jersey and I fully recognize that he has given this team and city a great deal, not the least of which is a career-record number of goals. I will be there on 23 October 2010 when Jaime puts on the red-and-black jersey for the last time.

Moreover, there are bright points to this season - Andy Najar is a phenomenal player and Bill Hamid has shown tremendous talent in goal. Tino appears to be gradually emerging from his slump and both Paulo Hernandez and Branko Boskovic have shown promise, if not results yet. Hopefully, there is quiet progress being made on the stadium front and 2011 will not be the last year in D.C. I'm just not sure there is much more to write about D.C. United until the off-season.

The Blame Game

Holy Crap, We Suck

D.C. United has had an abysmal season, no two ways about that. The coach has been sacked and United stalwart Ben Olsen placed in charge. While criticism of Onalfo may be justified, the fact reamins that United simply is not a good team. Benny Olsen recently celebrated his first win as coach, but the new team is hardly tearing up the league and the recent victory was hardly dominant or attractive.

I was inclined to think that firing Onalfo and promoting Olsen was a savvy move by United's front office. They "did something" about DCU's horrible record and perhaps sought to silence some of the criticism by promoting Ben Olsen. Olsen is in his first year of coaching, he's too green as a coach and everyone knows it, plus the love for Benny is such that if he didn't win a game the rest of the season, there were going to be no calls to put him up on a cross. Plus, there is the hope that Olsen will put a fire into the team that the players seemed to lack this year. However, upon reflection, the FO may have signed their own pink slips.

Players v. Front Office

Curt Onalfo may have been fired too soon. Not just in the sense that I don't really think he had a chance to craft his team, but also politically. The season was a wash already, certainly. However, there are still plenty of games left to lose to enrage the fans that still meander into RFK and Molly Malone's to watch the games. Without the coach to serve as a lightning rod, the fans will direct their anger at either the players or the front office and, at least on BigSoccer.com, the decision has been made to focus on the front office (truth be told, it's not a new decision; there were "Fire Payne and Kasper" threads right along with the "Fire Onalfo" threads). I question whether that is fair.

Slumps: the Case against the Players

Santino Quaranta and Chris Pontius are slumping terribly. Neither has looked particularly dangerous and both are giving away position far too often. Similarly, before his injury, Rodney Wallace was similarly playing poorly. Granted, he was in a different position, but he claimed that he prefers to play left back. Not slumping, but unexpected was injury-forced retirement of veteran defender and leader, Bryan Namoff. That's four of eleven starters from last year and they were some of the brightest spots of last year - the only other I can think of was Dejan Jakovic, who has been steady (injuries not withstanding). I accept as a given that MLS rosters lack the depth that four starters playing poorly is a pretty serious impediment, one cannot fault the front office for re-signing those players nor their lack of quality this year. There are other players I could point out as well, Simms hasn't had a terrible season, but he has not looked as good as he once did.

The trade for Perkins is more debatable. I was not one of those who said DC gave up too much to get Perkins back. They gave up a lot, certainly, and at the time I didn't understand why the team was so desperate to replace Wicks. I was unaware of Wicks' off-the-field problems and thought his moments of madness would fade as he matured as a player. Nevertheless, Perkins had been MLS goalkeeper of the year, he played well in Norway, and, at the time, was believed to be competing for the third spot goalkeeper spot on the U.S. national team. He seemed the solution to DCU's goalkeeping problems that had plagued the team since Perkins left for Europe. Perkins has been disappointing, however, and has been forced to battle with young academy star, Bill Hamid. I argue, however, that this must be seen as a slump. Giving up so much to Philadelphia was certainly a gamble, but looking at it, it was a relatively safe gamble that has gone freakishly bad; the FO could not have seen it coming.

So Many Shutouts, So Many Seasons: the Case against the Front Office

DC United's offense was in trouble last season and the fans all knew it. Statistically, this seemed untrue: the front office pointed to the relatively highly high ranking that DC held in the league in terms of goals scored. But Emilio was a microcosm of the problem - huge scoring droughts punctuated by multiple goal games kept him high on the scorers' sheet, but was unreflective of how many times he killed the attack. DC seemed unable to score when the games were close - consider all of DC's ties last year. Moreover, with Emilio on his way out and Moreno another year older, DC had no MLS-calibre strikers to look to for goals. The FO's answers were Danny Allsopp and MLS journeyman Adam Christman. Like so many of the acquisitions from the front office, both have been unsuccessful. This is symptom of the larger problem.

The front office hasn't found good offensive players since Emilio and Fred in 2007 and both those players had their best years in 2007. Bringing Gomez back to DC was unimaginative at best - he never regained his top form, but was never the worst player of the field. Franco Niell was a huge bust. Emilio was resigned as a designated player after his first few games of the 2008 season in which he was overweight and played with lackluster effort. Gallardo was a fantastic player, but just wrong for the team - a second year may have been better, but that was not to be. The flying Gonzalo brothers didn't turn out well. Then there was the famous Dyachenko fiasco, exposing him on the expansion draft and then trading a first round draft pick to get him back. An inefficient move for a good player, but Dyachenko never produced. Will Boskovic get better? Don't know, he's been called up for the Montenegrin national team which is probably a good sign, but thus far he hasn't really earned the designated player money that he is making.

But there have been good acquisitions as well. Jakovic stands out. Hernandez looks good, although whether he ever produces remains to be seen. Stephen King looks like a solid investment in the future. I don't know about Zayner; the Crew fans seemed upset that we had snagged him.

Conclusions

That DC is the worst team in the league this year is not necessarily the front office's fault. The player slumps have driven this team into the cellar. However, there is hardly evidence that this team would be top class even with the slumping players performing better. This has gone on for too many years to look at the players. The front office has been unable to acquire the quality of new players to make this team competitive. There have been some fairly huge gaffes and a stunning display of arrogance when questioned about those decisions. On top of all those things, DC United may not exist for much longer, without a stadium. That cannot be placed completely on the front office, but ultimately, it is their responsibility. A tough job to be certain, but it is their job and they have failed to do it.

Who the hell is Branko Boskovic?

D.C. United has picked up a designated player - Branko Boskovic, a 29 year-old former Montenegrin national team player. He won club titles and national cups with Red Star Belgrade and Rapid Wien (Vienna). He also had a stint with Paris Saint-Germain, but failed to lock down a first team spot at PSG.

Worried analysis:

I am not so great a soccer enthusiast that I follow the Austrian Bundesliga, so what I know only what I have read (Highlight reels can be taken with a grain of salt). First of all, it looks like Kasper and Co. went with what the fans have been clamoring and what many have interpreted as D.C. United's "tradition," a strong attacking center-mid. Which is good, provided that it was what Coach Onalfo wanted. Someone who knows Curt can ask him, I can't say for certain, but he has, in the beginning of the season, indicated a willingness to play without one. Boskovic sure looks like a pretty decent attacking mid, he scored more than his fair share of goals. That said, I'm not certain that he alone can be the answer. This team has the need of a prolific goal scorer - Boskovic is only prolific for a midfielder (30 in four years at Red Star Belgrade). It is possible that he will make D.C.'s strikers more effective and that has to be the hope, because a player with less than ten goals average per season is not going to drag this team out of it's funk.

Additionally, playing Boskovic as an attacking midfielder pulls a player away from D.C.'s leaky defense. Currently, some combination of Simms, Morsink, or King have been pitching in to the defense. James' form in his last game gives some hope that he can help shore up the back and the return of Jakovic helps a great deal, but that by no means gives D.C. one of the better defenses in the league. I assume that even if Bryan Namoff does recover (and we wish him the very best and do really want him back) tomorrow, I have to assume he will need time to get match fit and recover his form from last year.

Finally, Boskovic is not a high profile acquisition - not to be a total jerk, but Montenegro is a team that loses to the Caucasian powerhouses (read: UEFA jokes) of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Jakovic has been a stellar acquisition from Red Star Belgrade, I make no bones about it. But Boskovic is older than Jakovic and no longer plays for Red Star (but hey, do we have some sort of burgeoning relationship with Red Star Belgrade? Because I would be more than okay with that).

Conclusions:

I have always said that I will give anyone a chance on the field. Team and league dynamics can alter a player's performance and a nobody in a lower league can be a key player in a better league if his team matches better his talents. I was hesitant to even write this post because I feel that most speculation at this point is useless, predictions made that come true are fortune rather than skilled analysis. There is reason to be hopeful for Boskovic, it seems like a good acquisition and, considering that he is a relatively low-priced designated player, he may be an intelligent acquisition in that other players can still be acquired. However, it think it is probably too much to hope for that he is an instant fix for DC's stagnant attack.

Here's the highlight reel provided by D.C. United. I'd apologize for the music, but I didn't make the video. Seriously, I know he's coming from Rapid Wien, but did we need the playlist from a Viennese disco?