That "mostly" isn't a shot at Donovan. He was lethal this past summer at the Confederations' Cup, paired well with the aforementioned Beckham, Donovan and the Galaxy often showed their MLS counterparts what a creative offense looks like, was a constant force to be reckoned with in the qualifiers, and he is demonstrating that he can not only handle, but shine, in arguably the finest league in the world. It's just that this is less than 12 months.
Actually, that's not entirely fair. Donovan did not shine in his stint at as a substitute with Bayern Munich, but he stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the likes of Ribery, Schweinsteiger, and Klose and he never looked out-classed. There are those that look back now criticize that move, but I felt then, as I feel now, that he played with one of the finest and most storied teams in Europe, a team filled with superstars, and did "fine." He was solid. Not great. But before Onyewu's move to AC Milan, it was probably the biggest, most famous club with which an American had signed (I don't count keepers, the U.S. has had a string of good keepers. They are outliers.). He was not the team star, but he generally made the 18; he wasn't relegated to reserves. It wasn't embarrassing and were Donovan not a tremendous player, it would have been. Maybe I just like Bayern Munich and German football and want to see even more Americans in the Bundesliga. Could be.
Either way, he certainly did not attract the praise of the German press in the same manner that he has drawn praise (and some fear) from the English press. It isn't fair to say that he single-handedly pulled the Toffees clear of the relegation zone, there is truly some fine talent on Everton. They certainly weren't playing particularly well before his arrival though. I haven't seen as much of Donovan at Everton as I would like, but I can't fault him for that. He's starting and playing 90 minutes a lot of the time. It has more to do with my lack of Setanta and my computer being too crap to stream or even play video very well. Nevertheless, he drew startled but good reviews when he first arrived and my impression, backed by Ives and Everton manager David Moyes, is that he is improving.
Moyes has said that it is unlikely that Everton will be able to extend Donovan's loan. Ives has explained why that would be silly anyway. That is hardly the end of Donovan's European ambitions, or so I hope. While Everton may attempt to make a play for longer term loan in the summer, a successful World Cup may bring other suitors as well. Which (finally) brings me to the subject line of this post: What is Landon Donovan worth? Not that I have an answer.
The first question to ask is, "what is at stake?" For U.S. soccer and future U.S. stars, it is prestige. Donovan might not be "blazing a trail" into the EPL, after all, Dempsey has proven how valuable he is to Fulham by virtue of being injured (have you seen Fulham play recently? They haven't exactly been threatening defenses.) and a number of other U.S. players have played in the Prem (if not with quite the impact of Dempsey or McBride). I'm not even counting the keepers. He would, however, be blazing a trail as a real "star." Although, the "best" American players have played in the Premiership, Donovan's signing would be different. Reyna was a big step. McBride played and played well for Fulham; he was certainly missed when he left. However, U.S. soccer has grown and, rightly or wrongly, being the "star" U.S. player means more for Donovan. He would be brought in with a lot of hype and would have to live up to it, like a big signing from any other country (well, maybe not so big as some, but to an extent previously not experienced by the U.S.). If Donovan is unsuccessful, European clubs would continue to look with a jaundiced eye at the hype surrounding any future U.S. player. The opposite is true if he is successful; managers and owners who may hold U.S. soccer in low regard may re-evaluate their U.S. options. Not ending the mistrust and denigration of U.S. soccer, but perhaps changing a few minds and opening a few doors. Success also may assist the general quality of U.S. soccer, if more players stay in the game hoping that they can be the next Landon Donovan and earn a multi-million dollar contract.
Of course, Donovan has stakes in it as well, but how much is up to him. He has made it clear that he would like to play in England. If he wants a lengthy career in Europe, he will have to prove that he can hold up over the course of a season or more. His stay at Everton has piqued some interest, but still hasn't ruled out the "flash-in-the-pan" possibility. If he only wants to play in Europe for a couple of years before returning to the MLS, the stakes are lower and probably makes his calculus almost entirely about the money that he is offered. But again, how much is he worth?
I don't have a crystal ball. Alright, I do have a crystal ball, but it doesn't tell the future. Okay, it does tell the future, but I only ask it questions about the stock market. Those are all lies, all I have is a magic 8-ball and it's broken. The point is, it is unclear who would be interested in Donovan. Much will still depend upon his World Cup performance, but even if he has a disappointing World Cup, I don't believe all of the offers would dry up. So let's run the gamut.
Everton will probably be interested: Everton will stay in the Prem, short of a fiasco. However, European ambitions seem far-fetched and Everton are currently placed mid-table in the league. This is a path previously trodden, McBride and Dempsey most recently. A large part of me hopes that the best U.S. player can do better than a team that will really be aiming to Europa league at best. Indeed, as I have argued above, I believe Donovan may well want to aim for more. I may be dreaming.
What about Aston Villa, Spurs or a similar club? Villa has been in spitting distance of the big four and has gone on a couple runs to make it look like a contender. Villa does not, however, have the pocketbook or accompanying star power of the Manchesters or Chelsea. Villa or Spurs would probably be the lowest risk (risk being the difference between greatest and worst outcomes divided by probability. No, I did not bother assigning values and doing the math). While there would still be competition for a starting spot, it would probably be more manageable (although Spurs keep plenty of star power on the bench, that I'll leave that for the better half of this blog to lament). If Donovan plays well, he is still likely to be noticed by many other European clubs and his name and nationality would leave a positive impression for future U.S. players. He would probably get very decent money, particularly if his club made a successful European bid. I should probably note, though, that Everton is just a bit behind these clubs and, if they continue their run, and were last year, are comparable to any of the upper table clubs.
So what if Roman Abramovich makes a vodka-fueled call to Donovan and his agent (read, what if Donovan gets an unlikely offer from one of the heavy hitters)? Donovan playing well for one of the biggest teams in Europe, playing in the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions' League, speculations on his private life being front page material for big European papers would be awesome. Well, not the last bit, but the rest would be really cool. It's the playing that is the question. Big European stars like Ballack, Deco, and Valencia have all spent considerable time on the bench, and that's not even to mention promising players like Babel and Wright-Phillips. Getting a starting spot at any of those clubs would be difficult to achieve and to keep. I don't know that he is that good. I don't know that he isn't, but it is a risk. If he's just in Europe to make the big bucks before returning stateside, clearly, this is his best bet. But it probably wouldn't have the best results for U.S. soccer as whole, unless he really can wrangle a starting spot. But that's an ambitious and high-risk gamble for both U.S. soccer and for Donovan, if he intends to have an extended European career. Plus, it's highly unlikely that this would ever happen.
A nicer way to phrase this post would have been "how good is Landon Donovan?" But that would have missed the monetary aspects. Donovan's contract is not owned by the L.A. Galaxy, it is owned by the MLS. The MLS has been notorious about over-pricing its players and squeezing every last dime out of clubs seeking American talent. Which is understandable, but has it's drawbacks. Playing "hardball" with a good, but hesitant, option for Donovan could lead to the retraction of the offer. One would not hope that the MLS would put a premium on the money only, after all, they have stakes in increasing the "brand awareness" in the MLS and U.S. as well. However, as a fan of the MLS league, if not always the organization, I wouldn't put it past them. They may also opt for the best "general offer," that is the biggest club with the best money, without really considering how much Donovan would play for that club or whether it's really where he wants to play. Indeed, as a good friend said while criticizing my post (it's okay, I steal his jokes all the time), one of Donovan's great weaknesses appears to be his comfort zone: When pushed out of it, he does not adapt, he flounders. Donovan has some say and I assume has influence with the MLS (the last thing the MLS needs is its greatest national champion bashing them) and the MLS doesn't always operate like it's run by retarded hampsters, but having the MLS control his contract should be something of a concern, particularly if a faction of the MLS wants to keep Donovan's star power in the league. I'm not weighing in on the labour issue here in the U.S., I'm using a case-specific analysis for Donovan. An additional concern is whether Donovan's pricing may ward off any potential suitors, like Villa or Spurs or possibly even Everton, who if inclined to begin with, would not be interested in pay big money on a relatively unproven player (again, 12 months).
So, there is no real course emerged from this post. Merely a sample of the dragons and orcs and World of Warcraft nerds (perils and pitfalls, all) that still lurk in Donovan's career path. Donovan has done a lot of good soccer playing, but there is more to be done and (hopefully) many choices to be made.
What about Aston Villa, Spurs or a similar club? Villa has been in spitting distance of the big four and has gone on a couple runs to make it look like a contender. Villa does not, however, have the pocketbook or accompanying star power of the Manchesters or Chelsea. Villa or Spurs would probably be the lowest risk (risk being the difference between greatest and worst outcomes divided by probability. No, I did not bother assigning values and doing the math). While there would still be competition for a starting spot, it would probably be more manageable (although Spurs keep plenty of star power on the bench, that I'll leave that for the better half of this blog to lament). If Donovan plays well, he is still likely to be noticed by many other European clubs and his name and nationality would leave a positive impression for future U.S. players. He would probably get very decent money, particularly if his club made a successful European bid. I should probably note, though, that Everton is just a bit behind these clubs and, if they continue their run, and were last year, are comparable to any of the upper table clubs.
So what if Roman Abramovich makes a vodka-fueled call to Donovan and his agent (read, what if Donovan gets an unlikely offer from one of the heavy hitters)? Donovan playing well for one of the biggest teams in Europe, playing in the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions' League, speculations on his private life being front page material for big European papers would be awesome. Well, not the last bit, but the rest would be really cool. It's the playing that is the question. Big European stars like Ballack, Deco, and Valencia have all spent considerable time on the bench, and that's not even to mention promising players like Babel and Wright-Phillips. Getting a starting spot at any of those clubs would be difficult to achieve and to keep. I don't know that he is that good. I don't know that he isn't, but it is a risk. If he's just in Europe to make the big bucks before returning stateside, clearly, this is his best bet. But it probably wouldn't have the best results for U.S. soccer as whole, unless he really can wrangle a starting spot. But that's an ambitious and high-risk gamble for both U.S. soccer and for Donovan, if he intends to have an extended European career. Plus, it's highly unlikely that this would ever happen.
A nicer way to phrase this post would have been "how good is Landon Donovan?" But that would have missed the monetary aspects. Donovan's contract is not owned by the L.A. Galaxy, it is owned by the MLS. The MLS has been notorious about over-pricing its players and squeezing every last dime out of clubs seeking American talent. Which is understandable, but has it's drawbacks. Playing "hardball" with a good, but hesitant, option for Donovan could lead to the retraction of the offer. One would not hope that the MLS would put a premium on the money only, after all, they have stakes in increasing the "brand awareness" in the MLS and U.S. as well. However, as a fan of the MLS league, if not always the organization, I wouldn't put it past them. They may also opt for the best "general offer," that is the biggest club with the best money, without really considering how much Donovan would play for that club or whether it's really where he wants to play. Indeed, as a good friend said while criticizing my post (it's okay, I steal his jokes all the time), one of Donovan's great weaknesses appears to be his comfort zone: When pushed out of it, he does not adapt, he flounders. Donovan has some say and I assume has influence with the MLS (the last thing the MLS needs is its greatest national champion bashing them) and the MLS doesn't always operate like it's run by retarded hampsters, but having the MLS control his contract should be something of a concern, particularly if a faction of the MLS wants to keep Donovan's star power in the league. I'm not weighing in on the labour issue here in the U.S., I'm using a case-specific analysis for Donovan. An additional concern is whether Donovan's pricing may ward off any potential suitors, like Villa or Spurs or possibly even Everton, who if inclined to begin with, would not be interested in pay big money on a relatively unproven player (again, 12 months).
So, there is no real course emerged from this post. Merely a sample of the dragons and orcs and World of Warcraft nerds (perils and pitfalls, all) that still lurk in Donovan's career path. Donovan has done a lot of good soccer playing, but there is more to be done and (hopefully) many choices to be made.
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